There are many different ways to bet in underground lotteries. The greater the chances of winning, the smaller the odds of winning.
To analyze various betting methods, you can start by looking at the winning probabilities and expectations. For a fair gamble, such as flipping a coin, if you bet one dollar, there is a 1/2 probability of winning one dollar and a 1/3 probability of losing one dollar. The expectation of winning is calculated by multiplying the probability of winning by the amount won and subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost. In this case, the expectation is (1/2 * 1) – (1/2 * 1) = 0.
Assuming the lottery numbers are completely random, the winning probabilities and expected payouts vary slightly for different betting methods in underground Mark Six lottery.
The average amount of money a player loses per period is the bet amount multiplied by the expectation. The more bets or negative expectations, the greater the loss. Therefore, rational players who solely focus on money should either gamble or become a banker. In real life, apart from money, there are also negative returns due to laws on underground gamblers and underground gamblers, as well as positive returns due to the uncertainty of gambling caused by a lack of rational understanding of the game rules. Becoming a banker may bring positive returns, but the threshold is higher. Small-time players who become bankers face awkward situations and significant legal risks, so it is something that the majority of lottery players should absolutely avoid. Faced with various types of bets, ordinary players should allocate more gambling capital to play low odds games or allocate less gambling capital to play high winning-rate games. Therefore, rational understanding of the uncertainty of gambling and game rules is the best solution for stable profits and high winning rates.
Guessing Zodiac Signs with Flat Bets:
The rule remains the same, but if you buy two zodiac signs, you have a chance to win.
The payout is 3, and if the monkey is included, the payout is 2.5.
If you bet on two zodiac signs without including the monkey, the winning probability is (C(4,1) * (4,1) * C(41,5) + 2 * (4,2) * C(4,1) * C(41,4) + (C(8,4), 2) * C(41,3) + C(8,5) * C(41,2) + C(8,6) * C(41,1) + C(8,7)) / C(49,7) = 0.2052,= 0.18.
If one of the two zodiac signs includes the monkey, the winning probability is (C(4,1) * (5 – 1) * C(40,5) + (C(4,2) * (5,1) * C(4,1) * (5,2)) * C(40,4) + (C(9,4) * C(4,4) * C(5,40,4)) * C(3) + (C(9,5) – 1) * C(40,2) + C(9,6) * C(40,1) + C(7)) / C(49,7) = 0.2427,= 0.1507.
Guessing Zodiac Signs with Flat Bets:
The rule remains the same, but you need to buy all five zodiac signs to win.
The payout is 80, and if the monkey is included, the payout is 79.
If you bet on all five zodiac signs without including the monkey, the winning probability is approximately 0.008, and the expectation value is ≈ -0.38.
If you bet on four zodiac signs and one of them is “monkey,” the winning probability is approximately 0.009, and the expectation value is ≈ -0.25.
Under special circumstances, the expectation is -0.143.
If you bet $1000, with a bet of $1 per cycle, after 1000 cycles, you will lose approximately $143.
As you can see, all nine types of bets mentioned above have a negative or average expected outcome. Unlike flipping a coin, this is not a fair bet as players with limited funds will still experience losses in the long run.
The worst expectation is -0.67, and the best is 5.2, which is close to 0.003.
Although 4 has the highest cost-effectiveness, the chances of winning are as high as 300, fulfilling most people’s desires for small investments with the potential for large returns.
The chances of winning a 5.2 bet on a flat bet with “monkey” exceed 0.5, but the probability is only 0.8, and the average bet is expected to result in a small loss.
Guessing Zodiac Signs with Flat Bets:
Numbers 1 to 49 correspond to the twelve zodiac signs on the yellow calendar, with each zodiac sign comprising five numbers, except for the monkey sign. The remaining four numbers each correspond to one of the seven animals in the Chinese zodiac. Betting one dollar on a zodiac sign is equivalent to betting on four to five numbers simultaneously. The payout for the “Year of the Monkey” is 0.8, while the payout for the other zodiac signs is 1.
First, let’s calculate the probability of not placing a bet, which means the seven numbers drawn and the four numbers that are not included in the bet.
There are C(49,7) = 8,5900,584 possible combinations of selecting seven numbers from 49, and C(45,7) = 45379,620 possible combinations of selecting seven numbers from the remaining 45 not chosen for betting.
Therefore, the probability of not placing a bet is 45379620/85900584 = 0.5283.
The probability of winning with a regular zodiac sign bet is 0.4717, and the expectation is calculated as 0.4717 * 1 – 0.5283 * 1 = -0.057.
The probability of winning with a “monkey” bet is 0.5539, and the expectation is -0.003.